US dollar fell, LME outperforms SHFE, LME nickel rose over 1%, iron ore, coking coal, and SHFE copper led the declines [SMM Midday Review]

SMM April 8 News:

In the metal market:

As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally fell, with SHFE copper down 1.39%. SHFE tin fell 1.3%, SHFE nickel rose 0.14%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.67%, SHFE lead fell 0.81%, and SHFE zinc fell 0.49%.

Additionally, alumina fell 1.12%. Lithium carbonate fell 0.95%, silicon metal fell 0.26%, and polysilicon fell 1.18%.

Ferrous metals all fell, with iron ore down 2.72%, rebar down 0.51%, HRC down 0.98%, and stainless steel down 0.73%. In the coking coal and coke sector: coking coal fell 2.37%, and coke fell 0.63%.

In the overseas metal market, as of 11:46, overseas base metals were almost all up. LME nickel rose 1.61%. LME lead rose 0.48%, LME copper rose 0.86%, LME aluminum rose 0.38%, and LME zinc rose 0.23%. LME tin fell 0.6%.

In precious metals, as of 11:46, COMEX gold rose 1.2%, and COMEX silver rose 1.37%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.25%; SHFE silver fell 0.08%. Deutsche Bank raised its 2025 and 2026 average gold price estimates to $3,139 per ounce and $3,700 per ounce, respectively.

As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for European line container shipping futures fell 5.77% to 1,816 points.

As of 11:46 on April 8, some futures midday performance:

》April 8 SMM Metal Spot Prices

Spot and Fundamentals

Copper: According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper pipe enterprises in March was 85.23%, up 14.95 percentage points MoM and down 0.74 percentage points YoY... 》Click for more details

Macro Front

Domestic:

【Major Announcement! PBOC, Financial Regulatory Bureau, Central Huijin Speak Out】 On the morning of April 8, the PBOC, the Financial Regulatory Bureau, and Central Huijin Company successively spoke out to maintain the stable operation of the capital market. The spokesperson of the People's Bank of China stated that the PBOC firmly supports Central Huijin Company in increasing its efforts to buy index funds and will provide sufficient relending support when necessary, resolutely maintaining the stable operation of the capital market. The National Financial Supervision and Administration issued a notice on adjusting the regulatory ratio of insurance funds' equity assets. It mentioned guiding insurance funds to increase investment in national strategic emerging industries, serving new quality productive forces precisely and efficiently. A responsible person from Central Huijin Company stated that Central Huijin Company will continue to play the role of a "stabilizer" in the capital market, effectively smoothing out abnormal market fluctuations, and will act decisively when needed. Next, Central Huijin Company will firmly increase the purchase of various market-style ETFs, increase the purchase intensity, and balance the purchase structure. Central Huijin Company has full confidence and sufficient ability to resolutely maintain the stable operation of the capital market. 》Click for more details

【Institutional Calculation: If Insurance Funds Use the Full Equity Asset Ratio Limit, It Can Bring 166 Billion Yuan of Incremental Funds】 The National Financial Supervision and Administration issued a notice on adjusting the regulatory ratio of insurance funds' equity assets, optimizing the investment ratio. According to calculations by Fullgoal Fund, the total amount of funds used by the insurance industry in 2024 is expected to be 3.326 trillion yuan. If the full equity asset ratio limit is used, it can bring 166 billion yuan of incremental funds into the market. From a practical perspective, by the end of 2024, the comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio of listed insurance companies is generally between 150% and 300%. Under the new regulations, the upper limit of the equity asset allocation ratio is 30%-40%. In 2024, the actual allocation ratio of "stocks + securities investment funds" for insurance funds is between 10% and 20%, still leaving significant theoretical room. (Cailian Press)

【Multiple First-Tier Cities Are Studying and Reserving Policies to Further Stabilize the Real Estate Market】 The 2025 government work report first included stabilizing the real estate market in the overall requirements for economic and social development. It is reported that multiple first-tier cities are conducting research and reserving policies to stabilize the real estate market. The relevant departments of Wuhan City stated that they are doing policy research and reserve work, combining with the actual market situation, and will introduce and implement them at an appropriate time, continuously promoting the further stabilization of the real estate market. (Securities Times)

The PBOC conducted 167.4 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operation interest rate of 1.5%. As 64.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 102.5 billion yuan was achieved.

► On April 8, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.2038 yuan per US dollar.

US Dollar:

As of 11:46, the US dollar index fell 0.48% to 103.01. Concerns over global trade and economic recession have put pressure on the US dollar. The market will closely watch the minutes of the latest policy meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed) to be released on Wednesday. The market is also waiting for the US Consumer Price Index to be released on Thursday and the Producer Price Index on Friday to find clues about US interest rates.

Other Currencies:

EUR/USD rose. The EU tends to negotiate with the US and proposes zero-for-zero tariffs but will take the first countermeasures next week. EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said that the US imposed tariffs on 380 billion euros worth of exports, and a compromise on tariffs must be found, or the world will face a recession. (Huitong Finance)

Data:

Today, France's February trade balance, Canada's March IVEY seasonally adjusted PMI, and Canada's March IVEY unadjusted PMI will be released.

Crude Oil:

As of 11:46, crude oil futures were up, with WTI rising 1.35% and Brent rising 1.26%. Oil prices rebounded after a sharp decline in recent trading sessions. However, the market expects that the decline in oil prices may be limited.

A preliminary survey on Monday showed that US crude and distillate inventories are expected to increase by about 1.6 million mt on average last week, another sign of weak demand expectations. The weekly inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be released at 4:30 on Wednesday, and the EIA will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 22:30 on Wednesday. It is estimated that the breakeven cost of oil production in the US is around $60 per barrel; as some countries choose to cut investments and drilling, oil prices may receive support. (Webstock Inc.)

Spot Market Overview:

► March Copper Pipe Production Increased as Expected, April Peak Season Production Stabilized at High Levels [SMM Analysis]

► [SMM Coal and Coke Monthly Shipping] Total Domestic Coal Arrivals in March 33.45 million mt, Up 19.3% MoM

Other metal spot reviews will be updated later, please refresh to check~